DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/18 11:38
Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday
Soybeans are slightly higher at midday, corn and wheat remain weak.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 160 lower. The
interest rate products are flat to higher. The dollar index is 5 points higher.
Energies are narrowly mixed with crude flat. Livestock trade is mostly higher.
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $2.70.
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade trying to follow the
lead of soybeans and firm back from the fresh lows scored this morning with the
wet near-term forecast. Harvest should continue to expand in the double crop
areas of Brazil. Ethanol margins are stable with lower corn and energy prices.
Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. The weekly
export inspections were strong again at 1.66 million metric tons. Weekly crop
progress is expected to show steady to slightly lower conditions, and progress
remaining ahead of normal. On the July chart we remain below the 10-day, at
$3.75 which is now nearby resistance and then the 200-day at $3.82. Nearby
support is the $3.54 fresh low from this morning.
Soybean trade is flat to 4 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing
solidly off the fresh lows scored at the open of the day session with the
continued trade concerns. Meal is flat to $1 higher and oil is flat to 10
points higher. Bean basis has remained steady, with trade likely to remain
quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow with Brazilian values
rising rapidly on the anticipation of increased Chinese business. We remain
well away from the key soybean weather time frame keep concerns limited for
now. Brazil continues to struggle with the logistical issues compounded by the
trucker strikes with a large shipping line up. Weekly export inspections were
good at 818,396 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show planting
complete except for double crop with emergence ahead of normal, with steady to
slightly lower conditions. On the July chart, trade has support at the fresh
low at 8.97 1/2, and resistance the 10-day at $9.52.
Wheat trade is 4 to 13 cents lower at midday with winter wheat harvest
pressure coming out of the weekend. Wet weather for Kansas should slow harvest
in the next week or so, but good progress is likely through today. Spring wheat
should see better progress with warmer weather helping to catch up emergence
along with more rain while Canada remains drier. Australia should see some
improvement but overall remains mixed. Russian winter wheat is likely to remain
on the dry side, with the spring wheat cool and wet. HRW basis has improved
ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness. Weekly
export inspections were 372,843 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected
to show harvest ahead of normal for winter wheat with steady conditions, and
spring wheat steady to slightly better with emergence caught up to normal. On
the July KC is back below the 20-day moving average at 5.19 with the 50-day at
$5.31 above that. Support is the $4.96 200-day moving average.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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