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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/20 12:21

   Soybeans Lead Grains Higher at Midday

   Soybeans lead sharply higher trade at midday. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 270. The 
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 55 lower. Energies are 
mixed with crude down 0.30. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold flat.  


   Corn trade is 7 to 9 cents higher with trade trying to build on the positive 
finish from Wednesday as harvest continues ahead of more rain. Also, we have 
continued export interest with Mexico securing 160,000 metric tons of corn, 
mostly for 2018-19 crop year. Wetter near-term weather may slow harvest 
progress in many areas this week, while other areas are moving along quickly. 
Ethanol margins remain tight with production likely to fade near term even 
after strong runs last week and futures continuing to trend lower. Corn basis 
will likely see more pressure harvest here in the near term. The weekly export 
sales were strong at 1.38 million metric tons. On the December chart, support 
is at the fresh contract low printed Tuesday at $3.42 3/4 with the 10-day at 
$3.54 noted nearby resistance, which we are testing at midday. 


   Soybean trade is 15 to 20 cents higher at midday with two-sided trade giving 
way to aggressive buying on trade optimism. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 higher, and 
oil is 30 to 40 higher. Soybean basis remains historically wide across the belt 
with storage and shipping concerns continuing to dominate with more business to 
South America showing up to feed crushers. Crush margins remain strong in the 
near term. Early planting in South America is underway with conditions on the 
dry side going in but no major concerns expected for a while. The Brazil and 
Argentina currencies remain historically cheap with the real falling back to 
the lows. China lowered tariffs on neighboring countries, which could offer 
some more workarounds on trade. Weekly export sales showed improvement at 
917,600 metric tons of beans, 59,600 of old-crop meal, 77,800 of new meal, 
9,600 of old oil and 8,600 of new. On the November chart support is fresh lows 
at $8.12 1/4 scored Wednesday, with the 10-day at $8.32 and the 20-day at $8.37 
noted resistance levels with trade testing the 10-day at midday.  


   Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from 
the strength on Wednesday even with the weaker dollar and better chart action. 
World wheat prices have edged lower overnight as well. The U.S. dollar is at 
the bottom of the recent range. Russia will continue to work on spring wheat 
harvest and winter wheat planting with mixed moisture. Australia looks to have 
more mixed weather in the near term with longer-term dryness still an issue as 
we get closer to harvest there, and some frost in Western Australia with 
production estimates sliding. Weekly export sales were in line with recent 
weeks at 468,400 metric tons. On the December KC chart, we have support at the 
10-day at $5.17, which we moved above today with the 20-day at $5.27 the next 
round higher.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  He can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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